June 20, 2001

When mother earth gets the jump on us

Lurch by lurch, perhaps 10,000 times in the past million years, the land on the west side of Skyline Blvd. has moved north, leaving the east side behind. The next time it happens may well be the most important event in Pacifica's short history, and the most memorable, yet when it does happen, it will be overshadowed in the news by the impact on San Jose and San Francisco.

Though you may remember Loma Prieta, you've probably overlooked a key fact. That was a very minor rumble. To be really memorable, an earthquake should be about 30 times as big as Loma Prieta.

We've better building codes, better enforcement, and more knowledge than ever before. The bad news? the 1906 earthquake has receded into history. Even in 1906, Bay Area leaders treated that event as an embarrassment, a shameful blot on the can-do spirit they were so proud of.

In San Francisco, where in 1906 at least 2000 people died, of perhaps 400,000, they pretended only 400 died. In Santa Rosa, 25 miles east of the fault, it wasn't so easy to ignore 50 deaths out of 6000.

If people die in the same proportions in the next 8.3 quake to hit this area, 350 will die and several thousand will be injured in Pacifica alone. It's likely hardest hit areas locally will be Fairmont, Fairmont West, Westview, (all near the main trace) and Linda Mar, which rests on alluvium. The poorly constructed Pacific Manor Shopping Center will be badly damaged. Fairmont Shopping Center almost straddles the fault line.

One story ranch houses, like the ones in Linda Mar, mostly separated by 10 feet or more from their neighbors, will probably survive fairly well. Harder hit will be elevated ranchers, many of which will collapse into their garages.

The Devil's Slide road may collapse into the ocean. If the quake arrives before the completion of the planned tunnel, the road south may be closed for years. If the tunnel is completed before the tremor, and I've survived to see both tunnel and quake, I'll be most interested to see if the tunnel survives, or as I suspect it will, collapses. (Yes, I know it's against the rules to be so critical of such a politically and environmentally correct piece of construction).

It's likely several freeway overpasses will collapse locally. If the overpass at Pacific Manor falls into the roadway below, it's likely to require emergency bulldozer work north and south, and it will be difficult for those east of the highway to get to the post office and grocery shopping. The devil will be in the details. The time of day, the weather, and the exact epicenter and size of the quake will be major factors in how bad the event really turns out to be.

Of course there will be many moments of terror, regret, and pain but in all likelihood, heroism, generosity, and kindness as well. It will be a memory survivors will have in common. It will be the beginning of lifelong friendships, and perhaps in some cases, lifelong regrets. We will learn the hard way just how dependent we've become on electrical energy and the grid that supplies it. Rolling blackouts are just a training ground. Those of us used to computers, the internet, telephones, TV, radio, gas and electric stoves will learn how to live more primitively when we have to get along without power for weeks or months. Camping out will be a necessity, not a lark.

It will happen. It's the exact moment in time, the exact epicenter, and the multiplex of details that will determine the memories it leaves behind.

Paul Azevedo can be e mailed before the next shake, and hopefully, after, at thereactor@earthlink.net