May 16, 2001

Volcanoes, cancer, and other hassles

I'll grant you, we skeptics don't have nearly as much fun as zealots do. Zealots are enthusiastic. Zealots KNOW they have the truth, even if their truth is the opposite of the truth espoused by the zealot in the next block. Religions have been where to find zealots in the past, though I've also known some really zealous atheists. Some zealots in power may kill, and make lots more folks miserable, as in the French Revolution, the Spanish Inquisition, when Aztecs ripped the hearts out of their prisoners, when Muslims participated in holy wars, or when Crusaders marched on the Holy Land.

Religious zealotry is out of fashion in this country, but environmental zealots fill the void. Which brings us to Nancy Hall and her recent column in praise of Earth Day.

Thanks to Lowell Blankfort, Bill Drake, and the continuing efforts of Chris Hunter which have kept the Tribune a viable newspaper, she was able to publish a recent guest column in which she enthusiastically took on all those villains currently demonized by folks who think of themselves as environmentalists.

Dave Reed the following week successfully refuted most of what she'd written. Dave won the discussion hands down. He used facts. He pointed out weaknesses in her arguments. He did a fine job.

However, Dave didn't convince either her or Rob Morris. Not surprising. Trains are rarely persuaded to leave their tracks. Minds of zealots entranced by beautiful theories are rarely changed by ugly facts. Some of Nancy Hall's targets deserve criticism. HMOs, so-called Health Maintenance Organizations, need censure, not for over-prescribing, as she claimed, but for depriving clientele of needed pharmaceuticals. The expense and the danger Nancy objects to so vigorously are the responsibility of manufacturers who make drugs and doctors who prescribe them. Those medicines she abhors are the reasons many of us are still alive.

Rob Morris refers to "crackpots" who 25 years ago thought the big problem mankind will face in the future would be global cooling. For good or bad, global warming may be considered a "crackpot" theory by 2025. Or perhaps it will take until 2050.

Folks whose hobgoblin is "global cooling" should have a Halloween barbecue and gather with those whose hobgoblin is "global warming." Either or neither global event may occur. Humans may be wholly, partly or not at all responsible for either should it happen. Weather and climate, like the stock market, fluctuate. Up! Down! We can't do much about it. Climate changes abruptly, repeatedly and often. It will continue to change, no matter what men do or don't do. When what happens happens, we may never know why.

Volcanic eruptions, sunspots, solar winds, and dumb luck probably have more to do with climate change than do any actions of men. One asteroid on a collision course and all bets are off. But no one wants to admit he's powerless. That's why palm readers still make a living.

Rob Morris says blaming the cancer rise on increasing age and elimination of diseases is "a circular argument." Yet there are hundreds of thousands of Americans who "should" have died of smallpox, polio, yellow fever, influenza and whooping cough. I came close to death from mastoiditis at 14. Penicillin saved me, but not to live forever. I won't get out of this life alive. Neither will Rob Morris, but he's unlikely to die of smallpox. Both of us will probably die of something other than yellow fever or polio. That may mean cancer. Or it may mean heart disease, stroke, or an auto accident at 114.

Paul Azevedo's e-mail address is thereactor2@earthlink.net